FTA and Observation Selection Effects
Let’s try to get as clear as we can on what is happening in (a) Observation Selection Effect (OSE) cases, and (b) whether the Fine-Tuning Argument (FTA) is guilty of OSE. Note that figuring out just how to explain OSE is quite tricky. We should all be familiar with the fishing case. Suppose you and I go fishing and catch a few 15 inchers and no small fish. On the basis of our evidence (the size of the fish we caught) we seem justified in concluding the following: 1. P(E/L) > P(E/S) this says that probability of E given (on the assumption of) L is greater than the probability of E given (on the assumption of) S. Where: L = the lake has mostly large fish S = the lake has mostly small fish E = our evidence (the large fish we caught) But, my wife, contrarian that she is, points out that the net we used is only capable of catching fish over 12 inches. Our failure to include that in our backg...